The final estimation of insured losses resulting from Storm Boris, which brought severe flooding to parts of Central Europe and Italy in September 2024, has been completed by the catastrophe data aggregation firm, PERILS. The revised total now stands at €2.153 billion, representing a slight reduction of approximately 2% from earlier figures. Despite this minor adjustment, the definitive loss assessment is notably 14% greater than the company's initial projections.
Details of the European Flood Industry Loss Finalization
During September 14th to 20th, 2024, the low-pressure weather system, identified as Storm Boris (also known as Anett), unleashed persistent heavy rainfall across Central Europe. This led to significant inundation in Eastern Austria, the central and eastern Czech Republic, and southwestern Poland. Following this, the storm system moved towards central Italy, where it continued to produce intense downpours, causing severe flooding in the Emilia-Romagna and Marche regions.
Initially, PERILS estimated the insured losses for this event at €1.886 billion in early November 2024. This figure was subsequently revised upwards in December of the same year, increasing by over 10% to €2.08 billion. By March 2025, the estimate saw another rise of 5%, reaching €2.19 billion. The most recent and final assessment from PERILS now places the insurance and reinsurance market losses at €2.153 billion.
PERILS indicated that the most substantial impacts on the insurance market were observed in Austria, the Czech Republic, and Poland, with Italy and Slovakia also experiencing considerable damages. The methodology employed for this final loss estimate combined PERILS' standard approach, now termed PERILS CORE, which scales up insurer-provided loss data to encompass 100% of the market, alongside the former CRESTA CLIX methodology, now known as PERILS EXTENDED, which relies on expert evaluations from a diverse array of insurance industry sources.
Luzi Hitz, Product Manager at PERILS, highlighted the unusual aspects of this event, noting its accurate prediction by weather models well in advance, allowing for preparatory measures. He also pointed out the remarkable accuracy of early market loss estimations provided during or immediately after the event. Hitz praised the efficiency with which the insurance industry in the affected nations, in collaboration with their reinsurance partners, managed the aftermath. Nevertheless, he stressed the importance of learning from such major catastrophic occurrences, particularly the need to address outdated policy conditions that contribute to under-insurance. He also emphasized that a significant portion of the total economic loss, estimated at €7.6 billion, remained uninsured due to the general lack of flood insurance coverage.
Christoph Oehy, CEO of PERILS, further commented on the benefits of integrating the PERILS CORE and PERILS EXTENDED methodologies. He noted the positive reception of this combined approach within the risk transfer market, evidenced by numerous industry-loss transactions that have utilized either or both methods as protection triggers. These transactions include events such as earthquakes in Japan and Chile, and windstorms across Europe, including Central and Eastern European countries. Oehy concluded that this rapid adoption motivates the company to continue aligning with and responding to market demands.
This comprehensive finalization of the insurance loss from Storm Boris provides crucial insights for the insurance and reinsurance sectors. It underscores the challenges and complexities involved in accurately assessing damages from severe weather events, as well as the ongoing efforts by organizations like PERILS to refine their methodologies and provide reliable data. The event also serves as a critical reminder for policymakers and the public about the persistent protection gap for flood risks, highlighting the economic vulnerabilities that remain uninsured. The adaptability and accuracy of catastrophe modeling tools are continually being tested and improved, offering a more robust framework for managing future natural disaster impacts. From a journalist's perspective, this detailed analysis showcases the critical role of data aggregators in understanding the financial repercussions of climate-related disasters and the continuous need for innovation in risk assessment and insurance product development.
